Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

972
FXUS61 KBGM 252344
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
744 PM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) High pressure overhead will slowly slide to the east as today
progresses. A weak trough may bring some very light, spotty
rain showers tonight.

2) The pattern becomes more active starting Sunday, with
several chances for showers and occasional thunderstorms
throughout mid-week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Surface high pressure will continue to keep conditions pleasant
today with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s and low
humidity. Dry conditions are expected through the evening hours.

A weak shortwave will move into the area tonight as the ridge
continues to move to the ENE. Model soundings show pretty dry
air across much of the area, so even though CAMs are showing
scattered showers developing, there may not be enough moisture
available to actually get showers going or if they do, have it
reach the ground. The Finger Lakes may provide enough low level
moisture to generate a few spotty showers, but most of the area
should stay dry. Lows tonight will be comfortable, falling into
the mid to upper 50s with some low 60s possible in the northern
Finger Lakes and western Mohawk Valley.


KEY MESSAGE 2...

The surface high pressure is now progged to be a little farther
to the ENE, with less influence over the CWA. Dewpoints are
expected to climb into the low 60s by late Sunday morning as
winds become southerly and push some more humid air into the
region. This higher moisture combined with a weak trough moving
through the area will kick off some scattered rain showers
across portions of CNY during the afternoon and early evening
hours. A few of these showers may produce some rumbles of
thunder, with the best chances west of I-81 where we could see
better instability. Model soundings are showing very limited
instability east of I-81, which should hinder thunder. Severe
weather is not expected.

Much more widespread precipitation is expected to start Monday
afternoon. By this timeframe, we are forecast to be on the
eastern edge of the big ridge dominating the weather pattern for
much of the central and western US and the western edge of a
trough axis centered over the Mid-Atlantic. This setup leaves
us mostly free of the high pressure suppression and allows for
weak shortwaves to move through the area. One of these
shortwaves is expected to move in Monday afternoon, which
combined with weak instability and dewpoints in the low to mid
60s, should kick off some scattered rain showers and isolated
weak thunderstorms.

With the help of a jet streak running along the NE edge of the
ridge Monday night into Tuesday, a shortwave is expected to
rapidly deepen by Tuesday. How far south this trough digs or if
it becomes a cutoff low is still in question, as models have a
wide range of solutions. Some show the low moving directly over
our area while others have it pushing far to the south. In most
solutions however, we are forecast to see widespread rain
showers with isolated thunder starting Tuesday afternoon into at
least Thursday and possibly early Friday. Up to 2 inches of
rain is possible during this timeframe, with higher amounts
possible where convection develops. The timing and total
rainfall amounts will greatly depend on where the surface low
develops and tracks. We are currently in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding, but with the
recent dry spell and this looking more like widespread
stratiform type rain with moderate rainfall rates, flooding
chances look to be low. If the low passes more overhead or to
our north, we could see greater instability and convection,
which would produce greater rainfall rates that could lead to
higher flash flooding chances. Since we are not sure where the
low will track, a Marginal Risk seems prudent at this time.

Temperatures this week should start off in the 80s on Monday.
We should see cooler temps through the rest of the week with
clouds, rain, and northerly flow moving back in sometime mid-
week. Highs in the 70s are expected until the end of the week
when warmer air will ride over the continued ridge over the
western US will push temps back into the 80s for Fri/Sat.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR conditions through this TAF period, to 00Z Monday with a
small caveat. Isolated showers/a weak storm or two could pop up
in the afternoon Sunday, which affect any terminal with an
associated brief restriction. Confidence and probability are
both too low to include in TAFs at this time.

Outlook:

Sunday night...Moisture increases modestly by late Sunday, to
the point that valley fog formation could occur in the pre-dawn
hours Monday at KELM with associated restrictions.

Monday through Wednesday...Showers and/or thunderstorms may
result in occasional restrictions, especially in afternoons.
Valley fog possible at KELM late each night/hours up to dawn
each morning.

Thursday...Additional isolated to scattered showers and/or
thunderstorms and associated restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JTC
AVIATION...MDP