Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

202
FXUS61 KBGM 050109
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
909 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Severe thunderstorm watch has been canceled across all of our
Central NY counties and the northern tier of NE PA. The heat
advisory has been allowed to expire. Chances for rain and
thunderstorms have been significantly lowered to just a slight
chance for a shower this evening across Central NY.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A few lingering thunderstorms this evening and steady rain
for the Wyoming Valley region of NE PA. Otherwise, drying out
overnight with patchy fog possible.

2) A weak, but deepening surface low passes south of the region
Sunday evening into Monday, with widespread rain and cooler
conditions expected to start the week.

3) Upper level ridge moves west, with more seasonable
temperatures this week into next weekend along with several
chances of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

Partly to mostly cloudy conditions persist across central NY
late this evening, with just a few brief, spotty showers around.
Instability is quickly decreasing and CIN increasing across NE
PA at this time. Therefore the severe threat has significantly
decreased and will be ending shortly in this area. Expect a
period of steady rain, with a few embedded thunderstorms for the
Wyoming Valley and areas south of I-84 in NE PA through the
late evening hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

The evolution of storms and rainfall today will help set the
stage for potential flash flood risk Sunday evening into Monday.
A broad, weak low moves slowly through the region with
scattered showers and thunderstorms accompanying it. With the
upper level ridge retrograding and surface high pressure across
New England, an axis of stronger convergence is likely across
portions of southern NY or Northern PA. HREF Probability Matched
Means are indicating some higher end rainfall of 3 to 4 inches
in 12 to 24 hours. This seems reasonable given forecast
soundings show favorable winds for training (especially along
that axis of convergence), and warm cloud depths 11K to 13K
feet.

Heavy rain today, especially in areas that could get 1 to 2
inches of rain, would be more susceptible to the flash flood
risk so a flood watch may be issued if the rain is widespread
enough.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

The upper level ridge retrogrades to the west later this
weekend and builds out west. Temperatures will be closer to
average to slightly above, with surface dew points falling back
into the 60s. This time of year, we do need to watch this
northwest flow pattern. We are still close to the edge of the
ridge, with decent low level moisture/instability each
afternoon. Shear will be higher being closer to the jet stream
so any shortwave that passes through could bring a threat for
severe weather. Also, potential ridge riding MCSs would be
possible under this flow.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lingering showers and storms will be possible at AVP with
restrictions possible. Those should come to an end by 04z but
then low ceilings and fog will begin to develop at all
terminals. Late tonight/early Sunday morning, IFR to LIFR
restrictions will be possible at most terminals. There is
uncertainty at ELM and BGM where no rain fell today. However,
clear skies and light winds will be favorable for fog and/or low
ceilings. Fog should lift by 12z Sunday with conditions
improving throughout the morning. Rain showers and isolated
thunderstorms will be possible at AVP tomorrow, which then may
lead to additional restrictions. After this evening, winds
become calm and stay light throughout this TAF period.


Outlook:

Sunday Night through Monday...Restrictions possible due to
showers and possibly thunderstorms.

Tuesday...Mainly VFR with a chance for showers and isolated
thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR; showers and isolated
thunderstorms possible late Thursday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MJM
AVIATION...BTL