Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

062
FXUS61 KBGM 242348
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
748 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Lowered temperatures today and this evening with clouds
remaining steadfast and not much solar insolation being observed
at any site. Fog was expanded for tomorrow night with high
pressure in place.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Another slug of heavy rain will push through the region
tonight into Monday morning.

2) This upcoming week starts off warm, then trends cooler towards
the end of the week into the weekend under dry NW flow.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...

While it has remained cloudy today, at least there has been a
break in the rain for most of the area. Water vapor imagery is
showing a healthy shortwave moving through the Great Lakes,
which will progress through our area tonight. With a
strengthening 250 mb jet streak in eastern Canada tonight, we
will also be under the right entrance region of that jet.
Chances of precipitation were raised to near 100 percent as well
as the chance of thunder expanded, but still kept at slight
chance. Forecast soundings do have elevated instability but it
may not be deep enough to get lightning but it will be close
given the added synoptic lift. With the recent rain, soils are
nearly saturated so there is a small chance of localized flash
flooding in prone areas with some of the heavier rain showers
and potential thunderstorms.

For Memorial Day, the front associated with the shortwave is
through by 10 AM with dry air advecting in behind it. There
could be some lingering showers in the Catskills till noon but
the afternoon and evening is looking dry with breaks of sun.
High pressure centered overhead Monday night will likely lead to
widespread fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Mid and upper level ridging builds in Tuesday through Thursday
with temperatures warming back above average. An Omega block
setting up in the US with a west and east coast trough and a
central US ridge extending well into Canada will become the main
influence of the pattern towards next weekend. Trends have
continued to show pockets of cooler air descending down the
eastern edge of the ridge into the Northeast. While unlikely,
there has been a persistent signal of a pocket of sub freezing
850 mb air and if that does move through late week into the
weekend, highs may be limited the high 40s and low 50s. Day time
highs for the late week and weekend have been lowered into the
high 60s with this trend towards a cooler late week airmass.
Chances of precipitation still look limited with any meaningful
moisture being kept to the south.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Widespread MVFR to Fuel Alternate ceilings are spread across
all terminals. Another round of rain moves in this evening,
which will lower ceilings to IFR for most terminals and perhaps
IFR visbys as well. An embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out
tonight as well, but confidence is too low to include thunder
in the TAFs at this time. After the rain departs the area to the
east Monday morning, IFR ceilings will likely linger through
most of the morning, before gradual improvement by the late
morning/early afternoon.

Outlook:

Monday afternoon through Monday evening...Gradual improvement
back to VFR.

Monday Night through early Tuesday morning...Patchy fog with
associated restrictions possible.

Late Tuesday morning through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJG/MPK
AVIATION...BJG/ES