Utica, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

502
FXUS61 KBGM 060853
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
Issued by National Weather Service State College PA
453 AM EDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather continues as a frontal boundary stalls to yield
additional clusters of showers and thunderstorms, a few with
gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Rain chances will gradually end
west to east Saturday, as the front finally clears the area. A
brief dry window Saturday night to midday Sunday, will give way
to an unsettled weather pattern for early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
430 AM Update...
Main concerns continue to be prospects of locally heavy rainfall
and gusty winds with a few of the additional clusters of storms
that develop today.

Today will feature the same frontal boundary in our vicinity as
with Thursday, but with more low level moisture and clouds so
low level lapse rates will not be as steep and there will be
more mid level moisture. The environment is not quite as
favorable for microbursts, but with a 250 mb jet max nosing in
with potential for some better shear near 30 knots across more
of the area, there is again a chance for a few strong to severe
storms; earlier than what happened yesterday, too. The Storm
Prediction Center thus places most of our area in a Marginal
Risk for Severe Thunderstorms; which means at least 5 percent
risk of damaging gusts with 25 miles of a point. Hail potential
is considerably less than yesterday, with a narrower Convective
Available Potential Energy (CAPE) profile depicted in model
soundings; much of it taking on a moist-adiabatic appearance.
Surface temperatures will also be only in the 70s for most of
the area, instead of the 80s-near 90 like yesterday. So the
energy will not be as robust for generating any hail cores.

The juicier atmosphere will feature an axis of Precipitable
Water values in excess of 1.5 inches. Individual cells will move
faster than what occurred Thursday, yet will also be plenty
capable of downpours with the moisture content. Locations that
already received heavy rain yesterday will be most susceptible
to this additional rain. Chenango-Otsego-Delaware Counties have
been placed in a Flood Watch for that reason, though it should
be noted that isolated flood problems are at least possible
throughout our area which has a Marginal Risk for excessive
rainfall. Indeed, as the stalled front awaits passage of a
meso-low late tonight into Saturday morning, some more showers-
thunder with heavy rain could occur. It is possible that the
Flood Watch would need to be extended in time and area for that
portion of this system, depending on how things first evolve
today.

While the Finger Lakes region should start drying out Saturday,
Northeast PA and portions of Central NY mainly east of
I-81/south of I-88, will maintain rain and thunder chances for a
time before the front finally shifts east of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
445 AM Update...
Break in the action will be very temporary, as the next system
already advances in later Sunday, to place us right back in a
unsettled pattern for early next week.

Saturday night into Sunday morning, dry weather prevails a brief
ridge of high pressure visits. That said, wet ground from prior
rains is sure to contribute to at least patchy fog formation as
lows settle int the lower to mid 50s for most of the area.

Models have been trending faster with a negatively-tilted wave
that moves in as the weekend wraps up. This is closing the
window for our brief dry period, to the point that showers
appear likely to encroach in from the southwest later on Sunday.
We count on at least thickening clouds, with highs in the 70s,
but the later your outdoor plans are, the more at risk you will
be for seeing showers start to arrive. There could even be some
thunder as we head into Sunday night, as the wave and perhaps
even attendant compact low, shove through the region.

While the Monday through Monday night forecast includes showers
and thunderstorms, we might actually get away with a lull in
activity for a time Monday, between the wave Sunday Night and
one that arrives late Monday-Monday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
445 AM update...
We are anticipating a transition from unsettled conditions to
drier weather during the midweek period.

Models favor swinging an upper through through the region
Tuesday into Wednesday. On the front side of it, we may have
enough instability for thunderstorms and perhaps even locally
heavy rainfall Tuesday. By Wednesday we get on the cooler side
of the system, and thus lighter scattered showers out of the
west-northwest.

A welcome break in the action is evident in most model guidance
Wednesday night through Thursday and perhaps a bit beyond.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Restrictive conditions will continue for the NY terminals, with
abundant moisture from prior and upcoming rains. KAVP ended up
missing out on rain Thursday yet has cloud cover moving in, so
valley fog is unlikely early this morning. However, scattered
showers and eventually thunder can be expected for KAVP this
afternoon. For the NY terminals, additional showers are
expected and embedded thunder will probably occur for a few
locations. Unlike KAVP though, confidence is not high enough
yet for TEMPO groups/specific timing of thunder. For all
terminals in general, improvements late morning into afternoon
could be briefly interrupted by a shower or storm, and then
ceilings will start to lower again in the evening. Light winds
throughout the period, unless getting a direct hit from a storm.

Outlook...

Late Friday Night through Saturday...Front in vicinity with
waves of low pressure will cause occasional showers and
associated restrictions. A chance for embedded thunder as well
Saturday, mainly towards KAVP.

Saturday Night through Sunday...Rain gone Saturday night, but
wet ground will probably generate fog for at least KELM and
possibly others Saturday Night. Otherwise, low pressure moving
east with small chance of lingering showers but improving
conditions.

Monday into Tuesday...Potential for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch from noon EDT today through this evening for
     NYZ045-046-057.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...MDP